Insight · ★★★☆☆ · ~5 min
The Blind Archer (Order Statistics)
Three random shots — chance the 3rd is the new closest to the bullseye?
by MindYourPuzzle
A blind archer shoots consistently (random shots near the bullseye). They fire once, then are told "that was better than your second shot" (without seeing the target). They fire a third shot.
What is P(third shot is the best of all three)?
probability
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